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Deutsche Post rose 45% in our portfolio and has reached the price target we set out at the begining. E-commerce is only kicking off in Europe and the key-enablers are the last mile courriers. Deutsche POst has been an innovator with its pack stations. TNTE has been mashed up by the stuning veto of the European commission. There are still plenty of options open for the company. FEDEX was always the most likely bidder, but is stubbornly refusing to make a bid. DHL is also impossible as they are even bigger than UPS in Europe. The stock is now cheaper than before the bid, while the market has rallied and with the 200 million break-up fee, they can fill some of the cracks that opened up after the bid uncertainty. It is clear the company will need a strategic plan and needs a strong leader. I can not believe that Holland has no entrepreneur talent anymore to steer this company back into calmer waters. They will have to shed the Chinese and Brazilian mistakes of the incompetent managers before and make some realistic plans.

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We bought some D'Ieteren as the stock reacted very bad to the last results. The winter weather is good for them as it cracks more windows. Car sales numbers will bottom out this year and the new Golf is also a catalyst.

admin's picture

We bought some protection against a market correction. I can not get the beta of the portfolio below 1, so I needed some more drastic intervention to cut our exposure. I chose the S&P 500 as the US budget discussion are on tap in mid February. I do not believe that companies will take a bullish stance iun the 4Q results in this uncertain climate. I do not want to sell too many position, so buying the SDS proshare S&P short save in transaction costs. Those have increased recently with a higher tax on trades. The government wants to punish speculation, but it forces investors to a Buy and Hold position.

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The deal with Cerberus is now official. There is a public offer at 4USD, but conditional and with some risk left, I prefer to exit with a positive return on a stock, I had almost written off completely.

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We sold Invensys after the Bid from Siemens on the rail business. The main reason for holding the stock is now gone. 40% return in a couple of months was helpfull.

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The company has been mashed up too much. The last auction has been very expensive for all operators. The cable company Ziggo is expected to eat the KPN Lunch. These trends are not without merit, but have been extrapolated too far. Mobile data has not delivered the necessary returns for the operators as they had to invest into new technologies before the last generation became profitable. I believe that the value of the assets is undervalued in the current share price and expect a short term trading opportunity of around 30-50%. This is not a long term holding, but a value trade.

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Intel has suffered from the ARM-driven tablet and smartphone trends. New Atom designs could give the company a second chance to leverage its leading edge production facilities. INtel is still a leading force in the design and manfucturing of processors. Its current valuation discounts a cash cow company without much innovation potential, that is a mistake.

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We added some Melexis to the portfolio, the target of a recent study is 15.7 Euro.
The company is driven by the demand for cars and the innovation of new electrical aaplications in cars.
The company has always been an interesting take-out target.

admin's picture

We sold RYA as at 5 EUR, the stock has delivered nearly 35% performance.
Although the target has been higher than the current share price, the recent negative publicity on the airline safety offered a good reason to reduce the position.
We do not want to increase the exposure to the consumer segment in the current environment.

admin's picture

We increase the cash position back to 20% on renewed pressure in Southern Europe.
We target mainly consumer related stocks and KBC that enjoyed a strong rally on the improvement in the debt markets.

admin's picture

A Dutch fund has accumulated 20% in Devgen. Devgen has risen 30% over the last couple of weeks after a deal with Syngenta. There has been a lot of demand for the shares and speculation. I believe we can use the cash better as a safety net in the current rollercoaster market. If the shareprice comes back toward 5 Euro, we will have a look at it again.

admin's picture

Due to the relentless selling in the market on Greek worries, we invest new cash into these value stocks that o not seem to find a bottom in the market. The cash position stays at a low 3%.

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We added to existing positions as the market is spooked by the political news in Europe. Meanwhile the situation is Spain is stabilising and results are OK. We have decreased the cash position from 7% to 3%.

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We added to KPN after bad performance and the announcement they are looking to sell Base. This gives another guarantee of high dividend yield, now close to 10%. Better than bank account.

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We doubled our position in St.Gobain. European inustrials are too cheap vs. the US. 15% of sales are in the US.

Glass production is becoming more complex and added value.

admin's picture

After selling all KBC before, we put a toe back in the water, small position to reduce the underweight in Banks. No hurry, we bought below 17 Eur.

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We sold WIFI as the CFO started selling more shares every week.

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